2007 Predicted To Be Hottest Year On Record

The following is an exceprt from the UK's Met Office annual report on global temperatures.

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2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.

Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Nino, greenhouse gases concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 degrees C.

Met Office global forecast for 2007
Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 degrees C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 degrees C;
There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 degrees C above the long-term 1961-1990 average).

The potential for a record 2007 arises partly from a moderate-strength El Nino already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007. The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and therefore has a greater influence the global temperatures during the year.

Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting said: "This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world. "

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Read the full report here.
(UK Met Office)